Yet to find a single FOMC member who’s got it right, particularly with regard to QE:
By Joshua Zumbrun
April 18 (Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Narayana Kocherlakota said the central banks low interest-rate policies, though necessary, will probably generate signs of financial instability.
‘Probably’ used here means they haven’t yet. And if you look at Japan after 20 years of this it’s quite the opposite.
Unusually low real interest rates should be expected to be linked with inflated asset prices, high asset return volatility and heightened merger activity, Kocherlakota said today
Any evidence of this in Japan, US?
in the prepared text of a speech in New York. All of these financial market outcomes are often interpreted
Yes, and just as often wrong.
as signifying financial market instability. He told reporters later he doesnt see financial instability as imminent.
Right, so where’s he coming from?
Fed Governor Jeremy Stein and Kansas City Fed President Esther George are among those who have voiced concerns that an extended period of low interest rates is heightening the risk of asset bubbles in markets such as junk bonds and farmland.
Based on what? Has new issuance of junk bonds exploded in Japan? US? Anywhere due to low rates?
While George has dissented from this years Federal Open Market Committee decisions because of this risk, Kocherlakota is among the strongest supporters of additional monetary stimulus on the committee.
That hasn’t been working as hoped for/expected/feared.
In speeches earlier this month, Kocherlakota said he sees an ongoing modest recovery with unemployment staying at 7 percent or more through late 2014. The slow recovery calls for more accommodation, he said in a speech, repeating his call to postpone consideration of any increase in interest rates. He doesnt vote on policy this year.
Not a word about interest income channels, or any other attempt to explain why low rates haven’t ‘worked’ here or in Japan or anywhere else. The best they can do is the counter factual ‘it would have been worse otherwise based on our models’