Very positive commentary
Karim writes:
Overall index and key components (orders, employment) consolidating at a strong level; lengthening of supplier delivery times may explain strength in inventories
- “Business continues to improve; however, rising material prices are eroding margin. Increases to the consumer are inevitable in early Q1 2011.” (Paper Products)
- “International markets expanding rapidly. Domestic market is slowly rebounding.” (Transportation Equipment)
- “We’re starting to see capacity at suppliers become an issue.” (Machinery)
- “Capital projects are being released, which is improving our sales.” (Computer & Electronic Products)
- “We are seeing increases in chemical prices that seem to be driven by supply/demand imbalance.” (Chemical Products)
| Nov | Oct | |
| Index | 56.5 | 56.9 |
| Prices paid | 69.5 | 71.0 |
| Production | 55.0 | 62.7 |
| New Orders | 56.6 | 58.9 |
| Supplier deliveries | 57.2 | 51.2 |
| Inventories | 56.7 | 53.9 |
| Employment | 57.5 | 57.7 |
| Export orders | 57.0 | 60.5 |
| Imports | 53.0 | 51.5 |
These are “coincident” indicators.
On Wednesday, November 24, the actual Core YOY PCE for October was published by the BEA (See bea.gov, current press release with full text and tables, go to table 11). The October Core YOY PCE came in at .9. The revised September Core YOY PCE remained at 1.2. The revised August Core YOY PCE remained at 1.3. July remained at 1.4 and June remained at 1.4. The October decline from 1.2 in September to .9 in October is a significant move down. Why isn’t this trend reversing?
of course my theory is those pesky 0 rate policies are highly deflationary and allow for lower taxes for a given level of govt spending.
unfortunately govs don’t know that and keep over taxing us
Well that’s all well and good, but we’re about to become “insolvent”!
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/opedcolumnists/the_road_to_us_insolvency_crisis_YL5x9IN5dpdQ6gc70IO2gJ
Please, someone more eloquent than me go refute this nonsense in the comments section.