So the only explanation I could find for the 30% jump in Nov housing starts was the idea of shovels going in the ground ahead of year end when some 50 low income housing, energy related, and other types of tax credits were expiring. I didn’t see any sign of anything like a sudden 30% jump in starts in any of the other indicators including mtg purchase apps, sales indicators, reports from builders etc. etc.

And now the Jan number seems to have pretty much returned to ‘pre year end spurt’ levels, and if Nov/Dec ‘borrowed’ from 2014 starts could stay soft well after the weather moderates.

Or, I’m mistaken, and when the weather clears (including California…and with no income growth..) we bounce back up to Nov/Dec levels!

We’ll see….