Historically depressed and rolling over:
The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing index for current general activity rose by 4.8 points from the previous month to 10.4 in November 2019, beating market expectations of 7.0. Meanwhile, the indexes for current shipments and new orders fell 17.8 points and 9.1 points respectively. In addition, the current employment index decreased 11.4 points to 21.5. Both the unfilled orders and delivery times indexes remained positive this month, suggesting higher unfilled orders and slower delivery times.
US Jobless Claims Unchanged at 5-Month High
The number of Americans filling for unemployment benefits was unchanged at 227 thousand in the week ended November 16th, the highest level since the week ended June 22nd, and compared with market expectations of 219 thousand. According to unadjusted data, the largest gains were recorded in Illinois (+3,183); Iowa (+2,026); Minnesota (+1,825) and Michigan (1,090) while the biggest declines were seen in California (-4,568); New Jersey (-3,861); Tennessee (-2,348) and Pennsylvania (-2,115). Data for the week ended November 9th was revised to 227 thousand claims from 225 thousand previously reported.
From Fed minutes:
October 2019 Leading Economic Index Declines Again
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S declined in October – and the authors say “The US LEI declined for a third consecutive month, and its six-month growth rate turned negative for the first time since May 2016.”.
Slipping into recession: