They say its the strong $ that’s hurting exports.

I say it’s the drop in oil related capex after the price collapse:


This is what news headlines have been looking like (not good):

From Rüdiger (top German Specialist) research:

German new business orders for August were broadly lower. Compared to July, which was revised downward, they fell a seasonally adjusted 2.1pc. Compared to August 2014 orders rose 3.4pc.

However, there are two critical factors behind this figure. First, there was a huge positive base effect at work. Eliminating this statistical quirk orders would have been down an annual 0.2pc. Second, orders were helped by large scale orders for other vehicles“ (chiefly aircraft). Stripped for these orders the picture is even bleaker. It shows that the firming euro exchange rate has already significantly slowed orders from non-EMU countries.

The bottom line is that today’s order figures support our notion that the German economy is moving closer to recession.