As I suggested previously, the well hyped ‘credit acceleration’ has fizzled indicating most GDP growth forecasts could be grossly overstated:
Revolving credit outstanding had been edging higher in what had been a good indication for consumer spending but not in August, slipping $0.2 billion to end five straight months of gains. Non-revolving credit outstanding, boosted by strong vehicle sales and the government’s continued acquisition of student loans from private lenders, rose yet again, up $13.7 billion for the 36th straight month of increase. But the gain for the non-revolving component is the smallest since January and, combined with the slippage in revolving credit, made for a lower-than-expected total increase of $13.5 billion. This compares with Econoday expectations for $20 billion and is the lowest total increase since November. The consumer sector, the largest sector of the economy, has not been a stand-out contributor which has held back the recovery in general, and part of this drag is a reluctance among consumers to borrow.