Go rust belt!
Maybe I’ll finally get a good price for the condos I bought in the early 80’s when I lived there…
Monthly growth in composite activity in Chicago remains exceptionally strong, at 63.0 for this month’s reading vs an even stronger 65.9 in October. Strength is centered where it should be, in new orders which are at a robust 68.8. The prior reading, at 74.3, was a 9 year high. Production slowed in the month but remains very strong at 64.3 vs 71.1.
Employment is a special standout in today’s report, up 3.2 points to 60.9 which is the highest reading in more than 2 years. Inventories, at 61.1, show a sudden build as Chicago businesses prepare to fill orders. Backlog orders are growing strongly, deliveries are slowing, and price inputs are rising — all consistent with strong activity.
This report, which covers all areas of the Chicago economy, points to another month of solid growth for the coming ISM reports on manufacturing and non-manufacturing. The Dow is moving to opening highs following today’s report.
Market Consensus before announcement
The Reuter’s/University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index slipped to 72.0 for the early November reading versus 73.2 for final October and versus 75.2 in the early October reading. The latest result was the 7th straight dip going through both early and final readings back to final July. The erosion continues to be centered in expectations which were at 62.3, down steadily from July’s peak at 76.5. Current conditions have also been coming down but less so, to 87.2 in the preliminary November reading versus a peak of 99.7 in early July.