For example, unemployment could be 10% with no employees being dismissed and filing for new claims, and 150,000 new hire just in line with workforce growth so as to keep unemployment at 10%, and Thursday’s claims number would be 0.
Point is a falling claims number can refect ‘quietness’ and ‘stability’ and not ‘improvement’ and therefore not be forecasting increased growth and employment. Once ‘quiet times’ are achieved, it’s just a measure of turnover.
However/likewise, rising claims indicate ‘less quiet times’ with active dismissals on the rise. With a lag, a breakdown in the private sector credit accelerator due to the proactive austerity measures
should be evidenced (again with a lag) by a slowdown in the growth of credit/slowdown in sales/output/employment. This generally gets reversed by the automatic fiscal stabilizers of rising unemployment comp and falling tax revenues that increase the federal deficit to the point where the demand leakages are sufficiently offset.
Support could also come from a reduction of the demand leakages, including a reduction in net imports, but in the case of the US those are highly unlikely to change anything near term.