2008-03-27 GDP Annualized

GDP Annualized (4Q F)

Survey 0.6%
Actual 0.6%
Prior 0.6%
Revised n/a

2008-03-27 Personal Consumption

Personal Consumption (4Q F)

Survey 1.9%
Actual 2.3%
Prior 1.9%
Revised n/a

Revised up to a very respectable number. And income remains positive, and employment is at high levels.

2008-03-27 GDP Price Index

GDP Price Index (4Q F)

Survey 2.7%
Actual 2.4%
Prior 2.7%
Revised n/a

A bit better than previously reported, but prices have subsequently gone much higher.

2008-03-27 Core PCE QoQ

Core PCE QoQ (4Q F)

Survey 2.7%
Actual 2.5%
Prior 2.7%
Revised n/a

The Fed is more concerned about this and the evidence food and energy is getting passed through from headline to core measures.

2008-03-27 Initial Jobless Claims since 1998

Initial Jobless Claims (Mar 22)

Survey 370K
Actual 366K
Prior 378K
Revised 375K

2008-03-27 Continuing Claims since 1998

Continuing Claims (Mar 15)

Survey 2885K
Actual 2845K
Prior 2865K
Revised 2850K

Best guess:

The jobless recovery that morphed into the full employment recession now appears to be over with today’s jobless claims numbers leaning in the same direction as other data released earlier this week.

That does not mean the issues with the financial sector are all behind us – far from it.

It does mean the real economy has figured out how to move on with what’s left of the financial sector.

2008-03-27 Help Wanted Index

Help Wanted Index (Feb)

Survey 20
Actual 21
Prior 21
Revised 22


4 Responses

  1. Warren,

    I heard a guest on a talk show indicate that commodity prices would go down significantly as soon as there was a restored confidence in the dollar. This person seemed to say that a large group of investment entities have invested in commodities as a hedge against inflation or falling dollar and that is what has driven commodity prices so high. When their fear went away then they would remove their bets.

    Do have the same views?

  2. Not for crude oil, where i’ve concluded the saudis and probably russians are acting as swing producer and simply posting prices and letting quantity adjust to demand at the posted prices.

    for other commodities i do agree, and others are somewhere inbetween to the extent their cost of production is a function of energy prices.

  3. well as a former employee. i went to work as a broker in sales . i just want to know your thoughts on diesel fuel . i do agree with # 2 .

  4. not my area of specific expertise, but here’s what i’ve heard:

    seems there’s a relative shortage of diesel, and the refining process can only bias itself so far to get more diesel from a given amount of crude.

    expect more of same it that’s the case, as world diesel demand grows relative to gasoline demand.

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